New Short Positions

Thanks for that Nathan. 

I am out now and watching how price reacts to S/R levels around 14.6 and 1180.

Hmm psychological criteria for your checklist, good one.  Call me paranoid, but I have suspected for several months that there has perhaps been a deliberate effort by the PTB to make the CoT reports less predictable, as part of diverting the herd and sending them over the cliff!  What do you think, am I unwell?!

Well Alan I'm no Doctor but symptoms of paranoia, suspicion, conspiracy theories, thoughts of jumping off cliffs..... could be coming down with something?  😀 . Andrew Maguire also reckons the smashdown days are deliberate so the whole movment doesn't show up all on one CoT report.

Psychological criteria = if I feel unsure.. If it looks unclear. If I'm distracted . If I feel internal conflict. If I feel fear. If I think "This or that is likely going to happen", if I jump between decisions to go in or not.     I give myself some time to rectify my mental state to be unconflicted , positive and relaxed. If I can't get there  then no entry.

Excellent work Nathan... Love the criteria. Great commentary Alan, thanks.

Howdy Nathan, a few thoughts regarding your psychological criteria.

I find when I feel like that it typically reflects market conditions I have not experienced much before. 

Hence if it's an HP move I seldom feel like that because we've been exposed to them, I've done a heap of research, and I have my checklist.  Similarly, I've found the two webinars that focused on stop loss management very reassuring. 

In contrast if it's flipping up and down in a channel I do feel unsure, but I'm starting to get the hang of it and I keep the contract size down. 

Likewise, because of this protracted step-down short, I'm starting to get the hang of how to read trend continuation effectively and manage stop losses.  

So, as we get exposed to different conditions and try different approaches in different market environments our self-effectiveness increases incrementally until suddenly "boing" we've got it permanently.  When I took up mountain biking it took me 6 months to master a massive local hill climb without stopping frequently with dead legs and my lungs hanging out.  But after that it never left me, no matter how unfit I was, largely because my head had been sorted and I had no doubt at all that I would succeed.

I'm going to start another topic on psychology so these conversations  don't go off  from the original topic too much. 

Thanks for your input Alan. I totally  agree,  the more familiarity and confidence we have with the criteria and patterns the better.  

One challenging aspect I find about trading is there are so many conditioned thoughts and beliefs associated with money.  The beliefs are pervasive and well developed.  They can only be dealt with by addressing them in all aspects of life. If we only try to address them during trading sessions but allow them to dictate behaviour any other time then we won't be able to establish the new beliefs required to be successful.   I think Paul said once that to be a master  trader one really needs to master themself.  I hope I haven't misqouoted that.  Anyway that's what comes up when I think about psychology criteria! 

Nathan... Good idea. I'll reply later today when I get some time

Greetings Nathan... I think you're spot on here... especially with this statement... "The beliefs are pervasive and well developed.  They can only be dealt with by addressing them in all aspects of life. If we only try to address them during trading sessions but allow them to dictate behaviour any other time then we won't be able to establish the new beliefs required to be successful."

You've hit on the real problem and that is the foundation nature of "money behaviours and feelings". The money behaviours, psychology and emotions are so completely conditioned and socially engineered into the very foundation of the psyche that, trying to address them in one are but not another, is further programming for failure.

One of the things I can do is to explain how this happens in a series of videos I made on the Consumption Code.

I think it might be a good idea if I re-present these (I think there is five of them) as part of the ongoing Psychology of Money series.

I'll begin them next Wednesday

Greetings Nathan... I think you're spot on here... especially with this statement... "The beliefs are pervasive and well developed.  They can only be dealt with by addressing them in all aspects of life. If we only try to address them during trading sessions but allow them to dictate behaviour any other time then we won't be able to establish the new beliefs required to be successful."

You've hit on the real problem and that is the foundation nature of "money behaviours and feelings". The money behaviours, psychology and emotions are so completely conditioned and socially engineered into the very foundation of the psyche that, trying to address them in one are but not another, is further programming for failure.

One of the things I can do is to explain how this happens in a series of videos I made on the Consumption Code.

I think it might be a good idea if I re-present these (I think there is five of them) as part of the ongoing Psychology of Money series.

I'll begin them next Wednesday

Fantastic.  I am really looking forward to them.