Hi all,
I took a very small (accumulation) position on the 29th (as indicated) based on a demand zone in gold with a stop loss at $1234 just outside of the 'zone'. At the time of placing the long, the candle was green and moving out of the 'zone'. I was trying this method with a small contract size to see how it would turn out, there was no basis in HP or use of Alan's checklist as I was just trying out another method. The following day turned south and dropped further before eventually heading north again on the 3rd. I probably should have waited until price action closed outside of the 'zone' before placing the trade.
I added to my position yesterday the 6th at the MACD crossover. I didn't use the check list, although MACD, 3 and 5 day sma, s.storch, RSI and volume were all looking up. SL was raised to $1246 as depicted. In hind sight I could have left the SL at $1241 so as not to choke it, and as per Nathan's risk management model the next SL level at $1250 would cover my second trade and maybe I should have waited until then before making that second trade but I wanted to dollar cost average on the 6th.
Thanks for sharing Dan. What were the entry prices for the two trades?
$1249 and $1259
Long at 1255 with SL at 1235... Still waiting for Silver
Long at 1255 with SL at 1235... Still waiting for Silver
I took out an open long last Tuesday at 1259. I've just converted it to a HP position and put a stop loss on it at 1235. Current price just under 1260.
I was planning to put in the long trade after work now see theres been a bit of a smack down. What's up with that?
Gold long @$1255. SL $1235
Hey Dan looks like your stop loss was in the right spot... Just!
Hi all,
I took a very small (accumulation) position on the 29th (as indicated) based on a demand zone in gold with a stop loss at $1234 just outside of the 'zone'. At the time of placing the long, the candle was green and moving out of the 'zone'. I was trying this method with a small contract size to see how it would turn out, there was no basis in HP or use of Alan's checklist as I was just trying out another method. The following day turned south and dropped further before eventually heading north again on the 3rd. I probably should have waited until price action closed outside of the 'zone' before placing the trade.
I added to my position yesterday the 6th at the MACD crossover. I didn't use the check list, although MACD, 3 and 5 day sma, s.storch, RSI and volume were all looking up. SL was raised to $1246 as depicted. In hind sight I could have left the SL at $1241 so as not to choke it, and as per Nathan's risk management model the next SL level at $1250 would cover my second trade and maybe I should have waited until then before making that second trade but I wanted to dollar cost average on the 6th.
Well, we're now in the 10th day of the gold price going sideways and by my calculations I think this long is going to be a fizzer. For the checklist, it was only briefly HP at close of market on 9 July (score = 14), and even then it all came down to assessing whether MACD momentum was adequate, which I had reservations about (it was < 1.0). My main reasons for thinking this is not a good HP move: (1) sub-optimal MACD momentum right from the start, with little daily improvement, (2) at no stage have all short-term EMAs been pointing up, (3) EMA3 only briefly cut thru most other STEMAs (yesterday) and now they are all heading down, (4) languid, widely spaced, parallel longer-term EMAs show little evidence of rounding up (they were starting to), (4) USD/JPY is breaking out of the triangle, to the upside, (5) USD shows reluctance to drop, and (6) volume is declining.
Based on this assessment I closed out this morning. Now I'm waiting to see whether a real HP move develops. I'll put in another open long over the weekend. In the meantime, it's waiting...waiting...waiting for HP for me.
Hi Alan
Many thanks for all your work on checklist - it has been an invaluable tool for looking at historical HP moves. I am wondering about your comment regarding an open long position over the weekend. I am also thinking that this is what Paul was talking about in having a long position in the market in the event of a revaluation in gold. Can i bother you to explain what and how you are doing this?
well... it's survived one day; see how long that lasts.
Hi Yvonne, it's great to hear you're finding the checklist useful, so don't hesitate to ask for any points of clarification if you have any.
Yes, my open long was in case of the revaluation. I occasionally put one in over the weekend or a holiday just in case there's a revaluation, then I usually close it out on Monday (perhaps for a small loss), unless it's working in my favour. The other option is to just leave it in semi-permanently, but if the market is heading down you have to be able to sustain the unrealized loss.
ok, perfect, thanks for the explanation.
