At close of market 15/1/17:
Gold (2nd MACD bar): essential predictors = 2; total = 10
Silver (MACD crossover, no MACD bar): essentials = 1 (or ?weak 2) ; total = 11 or ?12
At close of market 16/1/17:
Gold (3nd MACD bar): essential predictors = 2; total = 10. Inadequate MACD momentum, price trend not in required direction.
Silver (1st MACD bar): essentials = 3; total = 14. Inadequate MACD momentum.
Thats really helpful thanks a lot Alan.
Alan... How come Nathan gets 4 stars and a title of "Estimable Member" and you get no stars and just plain "Member"? Is Nathan up to something? Has he discovered his own rating system?
Hummmm!!!!!
Well I can think of two high probability explanations. First I am extremely modest, seeking only fortune but not fame. Second and more likely, Nathan is probably up to something.
If I could spell "too shay"... I'd write it... (touche)
Fortune... not fame... resonates well.
Of course i am also known as a b.s. artist in some circles
That's OK... as long as they are circles and not "spirals!"
At close of market 18/1/19:
This is how I see it folks...comments appreciated:
Gold (5th MACD bar, note the first bar is faint): essential predictors = 3. Conclusion: not HP. Despite high total score of 15 or 16, two essential predictors are not convincing: (1) all MACD bars have lower than average momentum for an HP movement and (2) price trend reversal is not strong. Volume does not support last red candle. Strong support at 1265-75. Downward movement could be short-lived, but may offer good HP short if it breaks support.
Silver (3rd MACD bar): essential = 4; total = 17 or 18. Conclusion: HP, but strong support around 15.20-15.30 area. Again volume does not support last red candle. Downward movement could be short-lived. Delayed entry after it breaks support may offer a good HP short.
Agreed Alan... I had a wedge pattern drawn on Gold and a break above my upper wedge line would have been bullish indeed. So, now that it has broken below my wedge support line... it should mean a bearish move... however as you point out, strong buying pressure should kick in around the 1265 zone and offer a good long entry point.
Its a similar picture for Silver... I was expecting a pullback in both Silver and Gold.
The only question for me now is where strong support is for Silver.
Its just broken the 23.6% on Fibonacci so there could be buying pressure here as you suggest above. If this fails, I'll look for 38.20% which translates as $15.11 or there about.
If this doesn't hold, then the next Fibonacci level at 50%... or $14.88 will surely kick in and offer a great position to load up.
As always... nothing is guaranteed. So act on what you see rather than what you think.
I should also point out that this week in the US was options expiry week and that would have put pressure on G&S and a bit of a rocket on the S&P... but I don't think it will last. If the manipulators can increase the overall share market... they ensure that most options contracts expire worthless.
Alan - what was your score for yesterday the 23rd?
Also wondering if you could clarify this supporting indicator:
"Candles tested then moved inside the Bollinger Bands" - If its going short is this asking if the candles tested the top BB and then moved back towards the bottom? And the reverse for a long?
Yes that's correct re Bbs. I don't think the HP situation has changed but i will reply fully to both later as I'm on the road.
OK Kate here's the score from my perspective:
Technically silver has no change as it has already qualified for HP, but to develop any further it needs to break strong support.
I have no change to the total gold score (15 - 16) and I still think it isn't HP because only 3 essentials are fulfilled, specifically MACD momentum is still less than what you'd expect. The first 4 bars were weak (the first was hardly visible) and it is up against strong support. Also look at the last short short (pull back) around 13 November and you'll see that MACD histo bars 5 and beyond were taller than for the present short/pull back, but it still did not get very far. Thus, to me it looks more like a pull back than an HP short at this stage. MMentum is weak and supports this idea. Of course anything can still happen, such as a series of slams or some geopolitical event.
Your BB interpretation is spot on. The candles need to "approach" the near BB as the price trend begins to change in the required direction: meaning they need to get close to, touch, or go outside the near BB. Then they have to pull back inside the near BB. With time they will cross the BB moving average, then approach the far BB.
