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Calculating risk

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NathanW
(@nathanw)
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Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 136
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Hi folks.

I have recently modified my trading process and would like some feedback about it.  I used to structure a trade according to what is my standard full compliment and what percentage of that compliment will I put on at different stages.   Now I approach it based on what my maximum potential loss is at any one time.  It is all from what Paul has taught.  This is my interpretation of it.

Example: Entering a gold trade long.  For demonstration purposes I will say my maximum acceptable loss on a HP trade is $100.

1. Enter trade and establish stop loss.  Adjust contract size so stop loss is $100 or less.  

2. Decide where price needs to rise to before I can bring the stop loss up to break even or better still a few dollars profit.   (I enter a price alert notification in CMC)

3.  If price hits this level.  Bring stop loss up to break-even/small profit.  At this stage I can either leave it as it is or add to my position.  If I leave it as it is then from then on its free money.

4. If I add to my position I keep the same stop loss and add enough contracts to keep the maximum loss to less than say $50.  Maximum risk is reduced but maximum potential gain increases. Look for next price target to break even. 

5. When price target is reached bring stop loss up to break-even/small profit.   Add contracts to keep maximum loss to $25.   So on and so forth.  

I found using this approach I always know my maximum potential loss.  If I have a $2000 account I know I will need 20 consecutive high probability full losses to lose my account.  It also helped to shift my attitude from "missing out on profits" to "getting free money".  

An analogy I think of is if I knew there was a place where I always find $1 and $2 coins and $5 notes lying around I would probably go there on a regular basis and pick up some free money.   This is how I see this type of trading. 

I have different maximum stop loss amounts depending on the type of trade it is.  Small ones for experimental trades, medium for consolidated patterns up to largest for good HP moves.  I track the profit/loss of different catagories.  If I blow out the experimental allocated amount for example then I can't trade those again until I have made some more profits from the others.

 My current risk profile (its not $100) means I will have to lose consecutively 40 HP trades, 20 consolidation pattern trades and 20 experimental trades.  If that happens I think I better go back to a demo account. 

The entry trade is the "buffer" trade. It is not intended to make profits.  Its only purpose is to establish a break-even stop loss position in order to build on.  

 Lets say over several trades I accumulate $600 on top of my initial $2000 account.  I can then do a couple of trades with $200 or $300 stop losses.   If they are successful my account pushes up quicker and the overall stop loss threshold can probably come up too. If not then worse case scenario Im back to my original account size. 

Is this how other folks trade?  Any other tips you have discovered to be helpful ?  Is there anything about my risk adverse trading approach that you would do differently or that you see as potentially counter productive to being a better trader? 

Regards
Nathan

 

 

 


   
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 Paul
(@1tricycle1)
Estimable Member Admin
Joined: 2027 years ago
Posts: 119
 

Excellent procedural analysis Nathan...

And great psychology behind the $1... $2... and $5...

Using this methodology will enable you to develop greater Self Efficacy in a gradual build process.

It prevents the ego from taking over and trying to make "lumps" of $$$$ per opportunity... its where the subconscious is always looking to hit the game winning "six" or the home run... or the winning goal in the Grand Final.

Increases in Self Efficacy should always be the focus because this leads to Mastery... and the outcome of Mastery will lead to the end goal you want.

When I use the term Mastery here... it's important to dig a little deeper than a general understanding of the term.

Here's an idea from George Leonard... "We fail to realize that mastery is not about perfection. It’s a process, a journey. The master stays on the path day after day, year after year. The master is willing to try and fail and try again, for as long as he/she lives." George wrote the book... Mastery: The Keys to Success and Long-Term Fulfillment. A great read and philosophy.

Another book on the subject of Mastery I studied was... Mastery by Robert Greene. "Each one of us has within us the potential to be a Master. Learn the secrets of the field you have chosen, submit to a rigorous apprenticeship, absorb the hidden knowledge possessed by those with years of experience, surge past competitors to surpass them in brilliance, and explode established patterns from within."

In this book Greene explores the lives and practices of Albert Einstein, Charles Darwin, Leonardo da Vinci, and the behaviours of nine contemporary Masters.


   
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NathanW
(@nathanw)
Estimable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 136
Topic starter  

Awesome thanks alot Paul 


   
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