Check out my checklist scores for gold:
22 and 23 Aug: MACD momentum too low, total score = 3 essential predictors + 7 supporting = 10
24 and 27 Aug: Total score = 4 + 12 = 16, above the threshold of 14 for HP entry.
28 Aug: Total score = 4 + 9 = 13
I haven't scored it since then, but it probably would have gone down further.
I didn't enter for several reasons, the primary one being that I was in no hurry because of the stiff headwinds ahead from resistance zones. So, I'm still watching with interest and wondering if I would still be in.
So, if an HP long has not developed yet...has the checklist failed?
Well, "it all depends", and partly it all depends on your psychology. Since 27 Aug price has moved sideways and down a little. If you had your stop loss at the previous low around 1161 - 1174 you could theoretically still be in the trade, as the MACD histo is still blue. Alternatively you might have decided this HP movement is not going to run, and pulled out by now.
Now let's take a look at a couple of historical examples:
First, look at an HP gold long from 1 Dec 2015 to 10 March 2016: it took 3 1/2 MONTHS for this long to develop its full potential. For nearly 2 months, the MACD histogram puttered around, remaining at fairly low levels, but remaining blue, with price essentially moving sideways. Then it took off! Total price gain was around $230!
Second, look at an HP short in West Texas Crude Oil that ran from 12 July 2018 (score = a perfect 18) to 16 August 2018. For 15 days in the middle of the movement, the price moved markedly up and/or sideways. But you would not have been stopped out. Note: I'm not recommending you get into oil - this is just for demo purposes! I will confess, however, that I bailed with a tiny profit instead of trusting the perfect score on the checklist.
It's worth remembering that my checklist is an entry checklist; what the two examples show is that subsequent development of the HP movement can be long, slow, and not as smooth and predictable as we might like.
Conclusion: the checklist has not yet been shown to fail on this current gold movement. That's not saying it won't fail...only time will tell.
