Several people have already compiled the checklist I developed and also contacted me with queries and points of clarification as they test it on historical price movements or current price action. For those of you who are not quite sure where to begin, below are the webinar dates for the information needed to compile the checklist.
You can use the original checklist spreadsheet format I posted in the members area some weeks ago. I now use 1 for yes, 0 for no, and ? for unsure. Hence the scores can be added up using simple formulae in Excel. If you need any help with any of this please don't hesitate to ask me here or on a webinar. At the bottom you need a total score for essential predictors (must = 4) and a total overall score.
There are 4 essential and 14 supporting predictors. Copy each predictor description into the first column of the spreadsheet, with a separate line for each. As long as the essential predictors are at the top, the order of the remaining 14 predictors does not matter. As you copy each predictor description, it is a good idea to thoroughly familiarize yourself with its meaning.
WEBINARS: 18 April: the four essential indicators plus three supporting. 25 April: four supporting. 2 May: two supporting. 9 May: 2 supporting. 16 May: testing the draft checklist. 23 May: modifications to the draft predictors plus 2 more supporting predictors. 13 June: last (18th) predictor and theoretical success rate versus checklist score to decide on entry thresholds.
I am happy to check any scores you come up with or answer any queries.
Here's to the next HP move!
Thanks Alan
Also Thank you for putting the dates of the Webinars up there as well.
A couple of points of clarification:
(1) In the above post on compiling the checklist I am using the terms "indicator" and "predictor" as synonyms. The term "indicator" was a subconscious lapse into my past ecological career, where we refer to indicator species; the methods I used to develop the checklist are based on those I use to define forest and grassland types!
(2) Note the update I made to the essential predictor "Price trend reversal" in a previous post.
Alan,
Love your work!! Grateful to have these indicators listed out and a method to use them in a meaningful way
