Does anyone have a score for gold at close of market on 12 October? Ta.
No score from me Alan because this wasn't a HP in my book... it was an opportunistic move either side of a long held resistance line.
Hi Alan. I entered using the resistance line strategy not the HP so didn't score off the checklist. In saying that the current checklist scores look pretty strong. Paul how can we make the distinction between the chart set up and a potentially short lived opportunistic buying run? Thanks.
Hi Paul, Nathan. Yes, agree, but 12 Oct is after the big spike and I was trying to see if it had subsequently turned HP.
Because this move to me is a "counter trend" move out of a consolidating pattern... I expect it to be short lived. Hence not a HP for me... but s useful movement for the further development of skills around resistance and support areas.
It would have to move past the 1240/5 mark with a lot of energy for me to see things differently... therefore I'm looking for a HP to the short side as the next HP opportunity over the next week or so.
If it doesn't come... I'll reassess from there.
On the weekly there's a rising trend line from the lows of 2008, 2015. Price has bounced up off that and also out of the channel. Checklist score for a long as of close yesterday (15th) is 14 (91% probability). I agree it could be short-lived, but it might be worth a SE above the 100-day SMA, around 1236-40, before it hits the next resistance level around 1260?
Agree... however I think the 1240/45 area will act as overwhelming resistance... A better move is to place a Limit Order around the 1215 mark and wait for a pull back which then might take you up to 1240/45. Stoch is turning as is Mmomentum so the 100SMA is proving to be a barrier for the moment.
As for Silver... I'm waiting for either a pull back or some energy taking it past $14.75 before resuming Long.
Thanks for explaining that on the webinar Paul - it's clear as now.
The other thing...on the HP checklist, two final questions (after scoring) refer to the importance of support/resistance lines and volume, i.e., (1) Are there any support/resistance barriers to break before entry? and (2) Is the movement supported by volume?
Hence you might have a healthy score but delay entry, or alternatively adopt a stop entry or limit order strategy based on support/resistance lines instead.
Greetings Alan...
Firstly... you're welcome
In thinking about what you've written... my hunch is that most people are still not using the check list consistently nor do they fully understand the importance of the exercise and each of the criteria used to construct the list.
I'm planning to remedy this during the Retreat.
Yes agreed about the possibility of delaying entry.
The decision to delay entry is actually a difficult one to understand and most people will need a lot more experience at reading the energy of the market before things start to make sense.
At some point, entries are clear simply because of the energy in movements... at other points its not as clear cut... its these points that are a little more difficult to read.
At this stage volume and momentum heighten in their level of importance for decision making.
Alas I think your hunch is correct Paul. I would gladly help people out by responding to questions, but none are coming!!!
The thing is, the HP moves are the big ones...and who would want to miss out on the big rewards that come with them?!
The way to consistently and confidently engage with HP moves is by understanding the checklist and the indicators/predictors listed on it.
The market has been consolidating for a long time, but sooner or later a big HP move, possibly a very big HP move will start, and the better prepared people are, the greater their chances of success in entering and managing it profitably.
For the Retreat, I will also be covering some of the issues you raise, but from a different angle, to give a deeper understanding of how and why the checklist works.
People will definitely benefit from familiarising themselves with the checklist and its predictors before they attend. The best way to do this is to review the webinar talks I gave, as listed in the Checklist Discussion on this Forum and compile their own checklist to bring to the Retreat. Any questions...just ask me here!!!
Yes totally agree Alan... Like I keep saying, you only need half a dozen of the big moves per year in each instrument and things look very rosy indeed.
Hi Alan. Regarding the checklist item "Medium term EMAs. One or more of the following conditions 1. Rounding in the required direction 2. Converging 3. Diverging 4. Tight. They are not widely separated and approximately parallel"
Does the last statement "They are not widely separated and approximately parallel" mean they are parallel or are not? Should it read ...not widely separated or approximately parallel" ?
And how to differentiate between converging and tight ? Or Diverging but not widely separated?
Thanks alot
Yeah g'day Nathan. Heh, heh, this is always a tricky one to express:
It means they are both widely separated and approx. parallel, not either one or the other. This (hopefully) encapsulates the condition where they are lazily following price action, well apart and approx. parallel, which usually indicates nothing much is going to happen any time soon.
Under 1, 2 and 3, they could not be parallel. It's the diverging, converging and rounding that are important. Separation is not very important here.
Tight simply means they are so close you can hardly distinguish between them; 1,2,3 are not important at this stage.
What I will show you in a week or so is that conditions 1-4 predict a movement is likely soon, but do not differentiate between HP and non-HP (unsuccessful) movements.
Clear as...?
Yes I understand. Its one that I tend to ponder on longer than the other items so thank you for the explanation.
Yep, I usually have to think about it too!
