Here are my checklist scores for silver at close of market on 27 Aug. This was the highest closing price for the recent potential long, and the first blue MACD bar. After the 27th, both price and checklist score were clearly dropping.
Here are the reasons I did not conclude there was a HP long indicated on the 27th:
1. Essential predictor: MACD momentum was not particularly high. Although I scored it as sufficient, it was low enough to make me cautious and wait another day.
2. Essential predictor: Overall, the price trend had reversed and was pointing up. However, the movement was not strong and for 6 consecutive days (including the 27th) it was showing evidence of moving sideways rather than up. Again, another day's waiting was indicated.
3. Supporting predictor: The short-term EMAs were not all pointing in the same direction.
4. Supporting: The short-term EMAs were not particularly close to the BB moving average.
5. Supporting: In the last 5 days there had been a strong unfavourable (red) candle which counteracted a strong green candle.
6. Supporting: EMA3 had not cut through most other short-term EMAs (i.e., it has to cut through at least the EMA10).
7. Supporting: EMA30-60 were widely separated and more-or-less parallel. They were not rounding favourably, converging, diverging, or tight.
8. Total score: Even if one accepted the weaknesses in the essential predictors, total score was 13, which is below my threshold of 14. Some people might debate my total score, but the fact remains that it was a weak movement at the time of assessment and the weaknesses in the essential predictors reflected that.
Conclusion: the MACD crossover did not indicate an HP long, but rather an attempted long within a down trend.
Conclusion: the MMENTUM indicator had not risen above zero at the time of assessment, indicating that the down trend was still in force. It did so very briefly 2 days later, but by then the potential long was clearly history.
Conclusion: today (1 pm on 10 Sept in NZ, 9 p.m on 9 Sept in NY) the down trend is still in force, although 3 or 4 recent consecutive indecisive candles might perhaps indicate it is weakening...we shall see!
